Allmendinger, Michael Shank Racing win Rolex 24 at Daytona
Autoracing Betting Lines
01/29/2012 - Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Shank Racing pulled off a stunning win in Sunday's Rolex 24 at Daytona, with NASCAR driver A.J. Allmendinger behind the wheel of the team's No.60 Ford-Riley during the final stint.
Allmendinger shared driving duties with Grand Am Rolex Sports Car Series regulars Ozz Negri and John Pew, as well as IndyCar Series driver Justin Wilson in the 50th anniversary of the 24-hour endurance race at Daytona International Speedway. The 30-year-old Allmendinger crossed the finish line 5.2 seconds ahead of Starworks Motorsports' No.8 Ford-Riley, which was driven by Ryan Dalziel during the last hours of the event.
With a little more than one hour to go, Allmendinger put the No.60 car in the lead for good. However, Allmendinger had to swerve wide in turn one to avoid hitting a GT car during the closing laps. He went at least 20 feet off surface onto the paved skid pad.
"I'm so worn out," Allmendinger said in Daytona's victory lane. "We wanted to win this for Shank. The motor was so fast. I am so drained.
"I knew those last three hours I was going to have to go flat out. It was fun. When Dalziel got in the car...I knew I was going to have to drive my (rear end) off. I pushed really hard to build up a gap and take those last 10 laps to manage that gap."
It's the first time in nine attempts that team owner Michael Shank has claimed the victory in one of the world's most prestigious sports car races. The No.60 team completed 761 laps around the 3.560-mile Daytona road course for a total of 2,709 miles. It was one lap shy of tying the event's all time record, set in 1962.
"I feel like we deserved [a win], to be honest, because we've worked hard, and I don't make any excuses for that, and we've paid our dues for sure," Shank said. "I hope it can take us to new, cool places in Daytona Prototype in the coming years."
Last month, Allmendinger signed with Penske Racing to drive the No.22 car in NASCAR's premier series this season. He drove for Richard Petty's team the past three years. Allmendinger has yet to win a race in any one of NASCAR's three national touring series (Sprint Cup, Nationwide and Camping World Truck).
"I look at this year as being my best opportunity to win a Cup race, but that's easier said than done," he said. "Right now, I'm just going to take this for what it's worth and not think about anything for a couple of days and enjoy it. Right now, it's the biggest win I've ever had, because we've worked for seven years to get to this point with Mike Shank, and we've been so close so many times."
Wilson competed for the first time since last August when he suffered a back injury during a practice crash at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, which curtailed his 2011 IndyCar season.
"We all managed to comprise enough to get by between all four of us in being comfortable and being able to push the limit every single lap, because this was a tough race," Wilson said.
Dalziel partnered with Allan McNish, Alex Popow, Enzo Potolicchio and Lucas Luhr in the No.8 car.
Brazilian Felipe Nasr finished third in a second Shank car, the No.6 Ford- Riley.
NASCAR driver Juan Pablo Montoya finished fourth overall -- one lap down -- in the No.02 Chip Ganassi Racing BMW-Riley. It's the first time since 2005 that a Ganassi car was not on the podium for the 24-hour Daytona race. Montoya teamed up with fellow Sprint Cup driver Jamie McMurray and IndyCar champions Dario Franchitti and Scott Dixon.
"It was a great race - an epic 50th Rolex 24," Ganassi said. "My congratulations to Mike Shank and Ford for a fantastic race, but I don't want them to get too comfortable in victory circle."
Defending race and Grand Am champion Scott Pruett finished sixth in Ganassi's No.01 BMW-Riley. A transmission problem that occurred late in the race put Pruett four laps behind.
The GT class victory went to Andy Lally, John Potter, Richard Lietz and Rene Rast in the No.44 Magnus Racing Porsche. The team finished 11th overall in the race.
Lally has returned to Grand Am after capturing the rookie-of-the-year title in Sprint Cup last year.
"I absolutely knew we had the potential to do it," Lally said. "It was a pleasure to be able to join the team. It was absolutely epic to come home."
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.